Why both the Rams and Seahawks defenses are overrated plus other best bets for Thursday
Why both the Rams and Seahawks defenses are overrated plus other best bets for Thursday
Blog Article
I am reminded today that one of my favorite parts of caring about sports is the anxiety. It seems strange, as I'd prefer to eliminate that feeling from every other part of my life, but I welcome it when it comes to sports.I mean, what's the point of caring about a team if there's never anything to feel nervous about? I've been nervous all day, and I'm nervous as you're reading this because the White Sox are in the playoffs and starting their series against the Houston Astros soon. And I'm concentrating intently on every single pitch, anticipating and dreading what's about to come with each one. When it's all over, I'm either going to be thrilled or depre sed. CBS Sports HQ Newsletter Your Ultimate Guide to Every Day in Sports We bring sports news that matters to your inbox, to help you stay informed and get a winning edge. I agree to receive the "CBS Sports HQ Newsletter" and marketing communications, updates, special offers (including partner offers), and other information from CBS Sports and the Paramount family of companies. By pre sing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the and acknowledge Paramount's . Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe. Thanks for signing up! Keep an eye on your inbox. Sorry! There was an error proce sing your subscription. It's going to be awesome. I can't wait for it, nor can I wait to get to my Chase Utley Jersey picks for tonight's games, but we will because we have to read these stories first....?All right, now let's make some bets while I continue to sweat this White Sox playoff game. The Hot Ticket The Pick: Over 54 (-110): We tend to think of both the Rams and Seahawks as two teams with solid defenses. For Seattle, it's a result of those Super Bowl teams and the Legion of Boom, but the reality is the Seahawks defense isn't very good right now and hasn't been for a while.With the Rams, we think of star players like and , but as good as they are, the Rams defense hasn't been great itself.The Rams come into tonight's game ranked 23rd in the Fernando Valenzuela Jersey league in points allowed per drive. The number is skewed because of last week's performance against Arizona, but Tampa moved the ball, too. The Rams defense has played well against bad defenses and looked vulnerable against good ones. Seattle's offense has not been great this year, but it does still have . And with 's status in doubt, Seattle might be forced to let Ru s cook more than it would like, and I think that could be beneficial for both the Seahawks and the over. So, to summarize, I don't think a Rams offense that ranks second in the league in offensive succe s rate will have trouble moving the ball against a Seattle defense that ranks 31st in defensive succe s rate. I think Ru s will make things happen against a Rams defense that ranks 26th in defensive succe s rate. It can be scary taking an over on a Thursday night game, but we don't often get Thursday night games like this one.Key Trend: The over is 5-1 in the Rams last six road games.SportsLine's R.J. White is 35-17-1 with his last 53 ATS picks involving the Rams . The Picks MLB The Pick: Under 8 (-120) --I am not ashamed of my penchant for taking unders in MLB playoff games. It works! The games are lower scoring because teams no longer need to use their weaker starting pitchers, and they're much more aggre sive with the bullpens. Then you have a series like this one between division rivals. There are no secrets between the Red Sox and Rays. They've already played 19 times this season! What adds even more confidence to this play is that Dan Bellino will be behind the plate for Game 1, and he's one of the more pitcher-friendly umpires in baseball. Also, while Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez has an ERA of 4.74 on the season, his underlying metrics are very similar to Tampa's Shane McClanahan, and McClanahan sports a 3.43 ERA. Both strike out hitters over 27% of the time, and both walk them around 7%. McClanahan allows a lot harder contact overall, but it's almost exclusively on the ground, so it doesn't cost him as much. This will be a tight, low-scoring series, and, as long as the total is over 7, I'll probably take the under in each game.Key Trend: The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Tampa. College FootballThe Pick: Under 60 (-110) --I don't have a lot of trust in either of these offenses. It's not nece sarily that they're bad -- they just aren't explosive. In my metric, Tulane ranks 52nd nationally in Jackie Robinson Jersey offensive explosivene s, while Houston is 99th. This means that when these offenses do put together touchdown drives, they're long drives.The average Houston touchdown drive lasts 7.57 plays, ranking 34th nationally for most plays per touchdown drive. Tulane is over 7.09 plays itself, which is also above the national average of 6.94. Also, Houston's defense has been pretty solid! The Cougars rank 13th nationally in points allowed per drive and second behind Georgia in succe s rate. I have more faith in Houston to win this game, but I don't trust the Coogs enough to lay the points on the road in this spot. The under seems more likely. Key Trend: The under is 4-1 in Tulane's last five conference games.SportsLine's Advanced Projection Model is up almost $7,800 and . Thursday Night Prop BonanzaRams WR to score TD (+128)Seahawks QB Ru sell Wilson Under 23.5 rushing yards (-115)Red Sox P Eduardo Rodriguez Under 5.5 strikeouts (-137)
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